Forecast: Italy’s home sales will hit a record in 2024


Thanks to discounts from sellers, limited supply and government measures.

Situation. In its forecasts for the Italian real estate market, Nomisma stressed that the rise will surpass all expectations, aided by the huge resources associated with the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR).

Oldypak lp
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According to Lucio Poma, chief economist of Nomisma, Italy’s economic growth figures for the third quarter of 2021 were more optimistic than previously expected. While the second quarter was +0.2%, growth of 2.7% and 2.6% is now forecast for the third and fourth quarters, respectively, and 6.1% for all of 2021.
According to Poma, despite relatively low inflation at 2.9%, rising commodity prices and material shortages risk remaining a structural problem for a long time. Nevertheless, consumer and business confidence is growing and supports a desire to invest even in bricks and mortar. Consumer and business confidence is also rising. Only employment is not growing as much as GDP.
Nomisma CEO Luca Dondi emphasizes that the degree of interest in buying a home in Italy has been much higher than expected, reaching more than 3.3 million families who have decided to look for a new home and improve their quality of life.
The bulk of transactions is shifting to the suburbs, as it is there you can find more affordable housing with a large surrounding area, a high level of safety and privacy.
Expectations. According to Nomisma, real estate sales will exceed all the rosiest forecasts, reaching 738,000 units in 2024. In 2021, sales are expected to stop at 558,000. The main factors of high sales are discounts from sellers, reduction of terms of deals. At the same time, prices will remain stable due to the lack of supply, which is typical for the sector after the construction shutdown.

In terms of prices, the expected average increase in housing costs will be 1.8% in 2021, and rental rates will be 2.1%.

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